In a year when grids and renewables are grinding out records, the figure that is not moving enough is the one that matters most: 730 million people around the world still lack access to electricity. That’s the International Energy Agency’s updated figure for 2024, which speaks of a drop of just 11 million from 2023, well below the pre-pandemic pace. The transition is advancing, but for hundreds of millions of people, remaining without electricity continues to be the norm.
Eight out of ten of these people live in sub-Saharan Africa, where population growth runs faster than electrification. Here, the number of those excluded has not substantially changed since 2020. The reason is a mix of factors that weigh like boulders on national budgets: high debt, rising financing costs, declining development aid. Even as governments enact plans and operators install new lines, population growth in unconnected territories erodes much of this progress.
Arithmetic is ruthless
That said, fortunately the picture in Africa is not uniformly negative. Concentrated progress can be seen, with Côte d’Ivoire, Kenya, and Mozambique leading a recovery driven by the grid and mini-grids. In 2024, new connections in sub-Saharan Africa reached 6.8 million, up 2 per cent from the previous year, with grid connections up more than 11 per cent. Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda recorded significant advances. But the arithmetic is merciless: the increase in connections is largely offset by population expansion in unserved areas, for a net decline of only 4 million people without electricity.
At the same time, the solar home systems segment is changing face. Global sales were up 4 per cent in 2024, with sub-Saharan Africa recording an increase of 26 per cent in new primary connections. However, growth was driven mainly by very small devices—lanterns and systems up to 10 Wp—that do not meet the minimum “access” threshold defined by the IEA. Excluding these, connections from larger solar systems are down from their 2022 peak. It is a sign that the off-grid push alone is not enough if it is not accompanied by capacity and power commensurate with real needs.
A figure that goes against the trend
Another data point against the trend is consumption. In already connected households in sub-Saharan Africa, average electricity demand has fallen by about a quarter in the past decade, while access rates have risen from 30 per cent in 2012 to 50 per cent in 2024. Tariffs that have risen faster than incomes are squeezing purchasing power and pushing people to cut consumption, and new connections are often in poorer rural areas where electricity is used sparingly and for limited purposes. Even when panels and batteries come into the home, the small size of systems curbs demand. Finally, there is a lack of opportunities for “productive uses”—the economic activities that turn kWh into income—that have accompanied electrification elsewhere.
Outside Africa, the picture is more advanced but the problems have not been solved. In 2024, electricity access in developing Asia reached 98 per cent. India and Indonesia have reached universal access, while the bulk of the regional gap is concentrated in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Mongolia, Myanmar, and North Korea, which together account for 83 per cent of people still without access. Even here, however, the pace of progress has slowed compared to the 2015-2019 period. In Latin America, access is close to 98 per cent, but bridging the last few percentage points requires tailored solutions for remote territories such as the Andean highlands and the Amazon; at the current pace it could take up to 15 years, with Haiti and Honduras among the most critical cases.
Headwinds
According to the Agency’s preliminary data, 2025 does not promise decisive accelerations. Headwinds remain strong, amid debt burdens and shrinking development finance. Yet, something is moving on the policy front. About 60 per cent of people without electricity today live in Countries that have enacted new access measures in 2024 and early 2025: tax and consumer incentives, electrification programmes, national strategies and targeted interventions. Added to this are industrial and commercial signals, such as record imports of PV modules from China into several African markets, which can lower costs and accelerate grid, mini-grid, and distributed solar projects.
