Overtaking has not yet occurred, but the direction is now set. According to analysis by the think tank New AutoMotive, battery-electric cars in the United Kingdom are growing at such a rate that by the end of the decade something that seemed like science fiction just a few years ago will be plausible: more electrics than diesels on British roads. Today, the road fleet is still dominated by conventional engines, but diesel has entered a phase of structural decline from which it is unlikely to return. And not just because of the legacies of Dieselgate.
A clear trend
There are several million diesel-powered cars on the road in the UK, accounting for less than a third of the total, while pure electrics are still a minority, around 4-5%. But a comparison with the past shows a clear trend: since the peak in the mid-2010s, the number of diesel cars has already declined by more than 20 per cent. A decline that has never stopped, year after year.
Meanwhile, electric is growing. By 2025, nearly one in four new cars sold in the UK was all-electric, with more than 470,000 BEVs brought to market in a single year. Over the same period, diesel sales fell to marginal shares of around 5 per cent, numbers that nicely explain why the curves of the two trends are set to cross. Even if the vehicle fleet changes slowly, what enters the roads today is already very different from what leaves them.
Driving the process is not only consumer choice, but also the regulatory environment. The ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars scheduled-with some accommodation-for 2030 has transformed electric from a viable option to a mandatory horizon.
London is the most obvious laboratory for this change. The extension of the Ultra Low Emission Zone to almost the entire metropolitan area has accelerated the scrapping of the most polluting vehicles and prompted many motorists to get rid of diesel sooner than elsewhere. In the British capital, the rate at which diesel cars are leaving the scene is significantly faster than in the rest of the country, a sign that local policies can have a real impact on individual choices, especially when they hit the wallet.
The infrastructure node
This does not mean that the transition is linear or without obstacles. Charging infrastructure remains a critical issue: the growth of charging stations does not always keep pace with the increase in sales, and outside large urban areas, coverage is still uneven. It is one of the factors that could slow the rush of electric if it is not addressed with targeted and continuous investment.
Overall, however, the picture is clear. Diesel is losing centrality not because it is suddenly being banned from circulation, but because it is gradually being replaced. Electric, whilst starting from a still small base, is growing fast enough to make overtaking plausible by the end of the decade. If current trends are confirmed, 2030 could mark a symbolic but substantial transition for the United Kingdom: no longer a country that looks to electric as the future, but one in which electric will have already overtaken diesel.
