The nuclear dream of Japan’s new premier collides with post-Fukushima reality. Sanae Takaichi, newly elected to lead Japan’s government, has an ambitious plan to put atomic power back at the centre of the country’s energy strategy. But the numbers tell a different story: 12 years after the nuclear disaster that rocked Japan, only 14 out of 33 reactors are back in operation, while 26 are being decommissioned.
The new leader is faced with an almost impossible puzzle to solve. On the one hand, the need to ensure the country’s energy independence, on the other, stringent post-Fukushima safety regulations and a population that is still more traumatised than ever. Her programme includes a marked slowdown in solar development—a sector dominated by neighbouring China—in favour of nuclear power, which is considered strategic for national energy security.
Experts are sceptical
But experts are sceptical. According to BloombergNEF projections, by 2030 only three new reactors could be added to those already in operation, bringing total nuclear capacity to 16.6 gigawatts. A figure that represents less than half of what is needed to meet the government’s goal of producing 20-22 per cent of the nation’s electricity from atomic sources by the end of the decade.
The path is uphill: any restart must pass not only strict regulatory scrutiny but also gain approval from local governments, which have traditionally been cautious since the 2011 accident. Takaichi’s strategy also risks undermining renewable targets: analysts predict that solar and wind capacity will reach 140.6 gigawatts by 2030, a full 33.3 gigawatts short of the government target of 173.9.
The perovskite technology
The premier’s only opening towards solar concerns perovskite technology for photovoltaic panels, still under development in Japan, although China is investing heavily here as well. Meanwhile, Takaichi focuses on revitalising the agricultural sector through crop rotation and automation to reduce dependence on imports.
Despite the new premier’s ambitions, industry experts do not foresee any radical breakthroughs. As Mika Ohbayashi, director of the Renewable Energy Institute, points out, Japan’s energy and climate policies are already defined by the Green Transformation Basic Policy, which aims to decarbonise the economy with public-private investment of 150 trillion yen (about $987 billion) over the next decade. Takaichi’s nuclear dream will have to come to terms with this reality.
