At the same time as Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s trip to Algeria, the issue of energy security returns to the center of debate. But the suggested direction is not the obvious one. According to a new analysis by Italian think tank ECCO, chasing new suppliers or investing in fossil infrastructure risks being a costly and short-sighted response.
The thesis is this: energy security is not built by increasing supply, but by reducing demand. In an environment marked by unstable markets and geopolitical tensions, cutting gas consumption becomes the fastest and most effective lever to lower prices and vulnerabilities.
Renewables, efficiency, electrification: the numbers of the turnaround
The most interesting figure is that Italy, within 12 months, could replace more than 85 percent of its gas imports from Qatar, amounting to about 6.4 billion cubic meters. Not with new contracts, but with measures already planned or technically feasible.
The first pillar is the development of renewables. Installing 10 gigawatts a year of new capacity-as already envisioned in the National Energy and Climate Plan-would mean reducing gas consumption by 2.5 billion cubic meters, or about 40 percent of Qatar’s supply. Added to this is energy efficiency. Interventions in buildings, businesses and utilities could cut another 0.8 billion cubic meters, or 12.5 percent. Less waste means less energy to buy.
Finally, electrification of consumption, especially in the low-temperature civil and industrial sectors, can bring additional savings of about 0.65 billion cubic meters: heat pumps, more efficient industrial processes, and fewer gas boilers.
Algeria’s role without new infrastructure
That leaves a residual share, about 15 percent, amounting to 1 billion cubic meters. This is where Algeria, already one of Italy’s main energy partners, comes in.
According to ECCO, no new pipelines or new fields are needed. Simply make better use of existing infrastructure and act on an often overlooked node: methane leaks along the supply chain. Reducing them means recovering volumes already available without increasing extraction.
It is also a key passage politically. Because it suggests that energy agreements with supplier countries should focus on efficiency and transparency rather than expanding production.
Storage and savings: the winter game
Then in the short term there is another urgency: preserving stocks. Italy today has stock levels of 44 percent, well above the European average of 29 percent. An advantage that needs to be managed, however.
Without a structured savings plan, the risk is arriving at summer with emptied tanks and having to buy gas at high prices to bring them back to the 80-90 percent safe threshold ahead of winter. Again, the logic is simple: consume less today to pay less tomorrow.
A new balance in the Mediterranean
The analysis also opens a broader reflection on Italy’s role in the Mediterranean. Banking again on new supply agreements, especially with countries heavily dependent on gas exports such as Algeria, could prove short-sighted.
European demand for gas is set to decline. Continuing to invest in new production risks exposing these countries to future economic shocks, possibly affecting regional stability. Hence the proposal: transform energy cooperation into a medium- to long-term path, helping partners like Algeria diversify their economies and reduce their dependence on gas.
In other words, the solution is not to find more gas. It is to have less and less need for it.
