COP30 is the COP of Truth, and it begins with a bitter truth. Ten years after Paris, it is admitted that the first line of defence set in the agreement that was signed in the French capital, the optimal target of one and a half degrees of warming relative to pre-industrial times, is now unattainable. It is virtually impossible to keep warming within one and a half degrees. The World Meteorological Organisation says so, the Secretary-General of the United Nations repeats so. Words like stones. And words unfortunately based on solid science. It will depend on us, on COP30 and those that follow, whether the overshoot will be a temporary “overshoot” of a few decades, or permanent.
The second truth is political: the fight against global warming and multilateralism more generally are experiencing a difficult season. We are also told this by the audience of heads of state and government who are participating, yesterday and today, in the leaders’ summit that anticipates by two days the start of the Conference of the Parties in Belém. There are 65 of them, far fewer than in Baku, immensely fewer than the states and parties that signed the Climate Change Convention. There is, of course, no sign of the turbonegaist Donald Trump, but also no sign of Xi Jinping, i.e., the leader of the country that contributes the most to climate-altering emissions; Narendra Modi, the prime minister of that India that is the most populous country in the world; and, amongst others, Giorgia Meloni, who despite supporting the EU climate commitment—cutting emissions by 90 per cent to 2040, albeit by shortcuts—evidently has other priorities. As is easy to understand, the absences are not a good sign.
Trump-style turbonegaists
But the fair of hope, though maimed, must continue on its way. COP, as a response to the Trump-like turbonegaists and the many who speak well and rascalise badly, thus opens by giving science a voice. “Our latest report,” punctuates WMO General Secretary Celeste Saulo, “tells the inconvenient truth that we cannot deny the laws of physics. The warming trend continues, the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is at its highest level in 800 thousand years, and the annual increase in CO₂ in 2024 was the highest we have ever measured. And every day we see the effects on the atmosphere. It is therefore virtually impossible to keep warming below 1.5 degrees. This is reality.”
The UN Secretary-General reiterates the point: “We have failed in our goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees, which is the most ambitious threshold set by the Paris Agreement. And it is a moral failure, as well as a deadly neglect.” “Now,” he added, “we can choose to lead or be led to ruin. I call on the states not to remain captive to the interests of the fossil industry. We have never been better equipped to respond to the climate crisis, as evidenced by the boom in renewables such as as wind and solar. It is no longer the time to negotiate, the time has come to implement strategies to limit global warming.”
The fake news
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the host, wants to keep the ambition high and ensure the success of “his” COP. “This is the COP of truth,” the Brazilian president punctuated in his speech, “Now is the time to take this issue seriously. The world must decide whether we will have the courage and determination to transform things.” And Lula also shrugged a few pebbles off his shoes when he attacked what he called “extremist forces that fabricate fake news on climate for political gain.” It was a jab at Trump. While not directly mentioning the US president, he pointed out that “the window for action is rapidly closing and that the actions of those who deny the truth about climate change are condemning future generations to live on a planet irreparably altered by rising temperatures.” An intergenerational moral crime.
In Belém, the Amazon metropolis not surprisingly chosen by Brazil as the conference venue, Lula formally launched his grand plan for tropical forests, the Tropical Forest Finance Fund (TFFF). The funds will be invested in markets, and profits will be used to pay developing countries an annual sum for each hectare of preserved forest, a powerful deterrent against climate change and a reservoir of biodiversity. Most of the world’s primary forests are in poorer tropical countries, where it is more profitable to cut down trees than to preserve them, hence the idea to create this fund.
First funds arrive
Brazil, Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of Congo could, in theory, each pocket hundreds of millions of dollars a year if they could eradicate deforestation. The reception is mixed for now. Brazil has already committed $1 billion of the $25 billion it hopes to raise from “sponsoring” governments. Norway today offered to pledge triple that, up to $3 billion under certain conditions, and Indonesia agreed to a $1 billion contribution. France is also on board, with Emmanuel Macron coming to Belém to announce that his country will provide “an additional 500 million euros of support by 2030, which could be paid to the TFFF.” Germany will also contribute, but has not yet specified an amount. Zero interest, on the other hand, from the United States, of course, and even Britain has called off for now. Still, the path is interesting, even if ancillary to the main one. Which is to find the money for mitigation and adaptation.
“These ten years,” notes Luca Bergamaschi of the climate think tank ECCO, “have shown that change is possible. Thanks to the Paris Agreement, the global warming trajectory has fallen from 3.9 to 2.5 degrees. Renewables and energy efficiency are advancing, and solar and battery costs have been reduced by up to 90 per cent. The world now invests more than $2 trillion a year in clean energy, twice as much as fossil fuels. But that’s not enough. To stay on course at 1.5°C, we need to accelerate economic and industrial transformation, and finance remains the decisive driver.”
And it will not be easy. To really do it requires a lot of money, and a restructuring of multilateral institutions. The agreement reached at COP29 to mobilise at least $300 billion a year by 2035 for climate finance, a target that replaces the previous one of $100 billion, is not enough. As was said at COP29, 1.3 trillion is needed. But where to find it? Showing the way should be the Baku to Belém Roadmap. The Roadmap lays out a path to meet the new climate finance target agreed at COP29 to channel $1.3 trillion a year to developing countries by 2035. It represents a clear vision of both what needs to be financed and how to do it, presenting bold steps that can be taken by Parties, multilateral institutions and the private sector in the short term to get on the right track. “The immediate question that countries must now address,” they note at the climate think tank E3G, “is how to respond to and integrate the Roadmap into the decisions made at the UN climate summit. The Belém meeting should be a springboard for countries and institutions to accelerate implementation of the financial reforms needed for climate action, which will be the real test of the Roadmap’s value.”
Europe—overcoming the 2040 target hurdle with an all-too-acceptable downward agreement—continues to hold the banner of fighting climate change. More stunted than in the past, but these are difficult times for environmental integrity. “My message,” Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in her remarks to the leaders’ summit, “is simple: Europe stays the course. And we offer our support to our partners so that they too can do the same, because the whole world should reap the benefits of the clean transition. We are here to redouble our commitments, strive to further accelerate our implementation, close remaining gaps, strengthen our partnerships, and deliver real progress.” With Europe are Britain and a few other countries in the global north, from wealthy Norway to Canada.
But the old continent now accounts for only 6 per cent of global emissions, and Europe can at best act as a beacon, a stimulus, not anything else. It needs the commitment of the emissions giants. Gone again is the United States (second emitter). It needs China, which is both the big problem, being the biggest emitter, but also the great opportunity, being the greatest producer and installer of renewables. Beijing is willing, but in its own time and only if the green one will be a business. And a strong call to that effect came in Belém, where China in fact called for the elimination of customs and trade barriers on “green products” to combat climate change. “We need to strengthen international cooperation in green technologies and industries, remove trade barriers, and ensure the free movement of quality green products to best meet the needs of global sustainable development,” said Ding Xuexiang, China’s vice-premier, “This means concretely working with all parties to relentlessly promote green and low-carbon development.”
The game is complex, between environment, development and international trade. And in this context, the countries holding back—neither deniers nor siding with the green—are several. Amongst them is Italy, which appeals to realism. “We must make sure that the fight against climate change is done in a non-ideological way, but with a pragmatic attitude,” Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani said at a press point in Belém. “In the course of my speech,” Tajani continued, “I will reiterate our commitment against climate change, but you cannot deal with the fight against climate change without taking into account the social issue, that is the problem, because if the targets are unattainable for business, for industry, there is the risk of losing tens of thousands of jobs. And we cannot afford that.”
Squeezed in the gap between the necessary and the possible, COP30 is heading into two weeks as torrid and sultry as the weather in Belém. The balance will be taken in two weeks. Between now and then there will be battle in the corridors, meeting rooms and plenary. Because, when hundreds of billions of dollars are at stake, with more or less noble motives no one wants to drop the bone.
