{"id":14872,"date":"2026-02-06T17:19:23","date_gmt":"2026-02-06T15:19:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/why-a-snowfall-does-not-disprove-global-warming\/"},"modified":"2026-02-06T17:44:24","modified_gmt":"2026-02-06T15:44:24","slug":"why-a-snowfall-does-not-disprove-global-warming","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/why-a-snowfall-does-not-disprove-global-warming\/","title":{"rendered":"Why a snowfall does not disprove global warming"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Early January 2026<\/a>: thermometers at -10 \u00b0C in the Po Valley, highs of -17 \u00b0C in Tuscany at 450 meters, snow in Basilicata and on the Gargano. On social media, the usual refrain: “And where is global warming?” Thousands of shares, laughter, memes with snowmen. A few weeks earlier, the same accounts shared articles about 2024 as the warmest year on record. No perceived contradiction. <\/p>\n\n

The problem is not bad faith. It is that we constantly confuse two different things: weather and climate<\/strong>. And this confusion is not harmless, because it allows misleading narratives to flourish whenever it is cold. <\/p>\n\n

The weather is what happens outside the window today. Is it raining? Is it sunny? Is it hot or cold? It is the weather at a specific time in a specific place<\/strong>. Tomorrow it could be completely different. Climate is what happens on average in a place over decades<\/strong>. It is the pattern, the long-term trend. It is not “seen” by looking out the window, it is measured by analyzing data collected over 30 years or more<\/strong>. <\/p>\n\n

An analogy helps: the weather is to the climate as your mood is to your character. You can be a generally cheerful person (character) and have a bad day (mood). A sad day does not make you a depressed person. Similarly, an exceptional cold spell does not disprove a warming climatic trend. <\/p>\n\n

When speaking to Adnkronos about the temperatures these days, climatologist Luca Mercalli<\/strong> called <\/a>the cold episode “a fine episode of normal winter” that we may no longer be used to, pointing out that “in recent history we have had much worse ones” such as “the one in 2012 that was markedly more intense.” Normal winter. Not denial of warming. Simply: winter. <\/p>\n\n

But there is one detail that makes it more complicated: global warming does not eliminate cold.<\/a> It makes it more extreme <\/a>and unpredictable<\/strong>. The Arctic warms faster than the rest of the Planet, weakening the polar vortex<\/a>, the air current that normally “imprisons” frigid air at the North Pole. When it weakens, this air can drop much farther south than usual, bringing waves of frost to places where they would not normally reach. So yes, global warming can cause exceptional snowfall. <\/p>\n\n

This is why scientists prefer to talk about “climate change” or “climate crisis” rather than “global warming.” It’s not just about higher average temperatures. It’s about a destabilized climate system: more heat waves, but also more extreme cold events. More droughts in some regions, more flooding in others. More intensity, more variability, more unpredictability. <\/p>\n\n

The data confirm this. Italy recorded in 2024, the hottest year since 1800, average temperatures 1.33 \u00b0C<\/strong> higher<\/a> than the 1991-2020 average. 2023 had been +1.12 \u00b0C<\/a>, 2022 +1.16 \u00b0C. In recent decades, warming has been accelerating: almost half a degree every ten years<\/strong><\/a>. But this does not mean that every single day has been warmer. It means that, considering all days of the year at all survey stations, the average has increased. Some days have been freezing cold, others scorching hot. The overall trend points upward. <\/p>\n\n

The confusion between weather and climate is exactly the kind of cognitive space that misinformation exploits<\/strong>. Every cold wave becomes “evidence” against climate change. Every scorching summer is dismissed with “but it’s always hot in summer.” The trick works because our brains reason from immediate experiences, not from 30-year statistical trends. <\/p>\n\n

The next time someone comments on a snowfall with “what about global warming?” the answer is not just “you are confusing weather and climate.” It is: global warming makes these events more likely<\/strong>, not less. The destabilized climate system produces exactly that: more extremes, in both directions. <\/p>\n\n

Looking out the window today doesn’t tell you anything about the weather. It only tells you what the weather is like here today. To understand the climate, you have to look at the data. And the data tell a very different story than what a snowman in the Gargano seems to suggest. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

An exceptional snowfall and a few days of frost are enough to trigger irony and skepticism about global warming, but to confuse weather and climate is to ignore data, trends, and mechanisms that explain why extremes are becoming more frequent<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":41,"featured_media":14875,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"googlesitekit_rrm_CAowscnaCw:productID":"","_app_feed_target":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1597],"tags":[2112,2194],"class_list":["post-14872","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-climate-crisis","tag-global-warming","tag-snow"],"yoast_head":"\nWhy a snowfall does not disprove global warming • Ultima Bozza<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"An exceptional snowfall and a few days of frost are enough to trigger irony and skepticism about global warming, but to confuse weather and climate is to ignore data, trends, 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