{"id":17762,"date":"2026-04-14T10:53:54","date_gmt":"2026-04-14T08:53:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/middle-east-war-warning-from-iea-imf-and-world-bank\/"},"modified":"2026-04-14T13:05:59","modified_gmt":"2026-04-14T11:05:59","slug":"middle-east-war-warning-from-iea-imf-and-world-bank","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/middle-east-war-warning-from-iea-imf-and-world-bank\/","title":{"rendered":"Middle East war: warning from IEA, IMF and World Bank"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

In Washington, on the eve of the spring assemblies of the IMF and World Bank, the heads of the three major international economic and energy institutions sat around the same table and said, in essence, one thing: the situation is serious, it is global, and it will not be resolved soon<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n

The joint communiqu\u00e9 signed<\/a> on April 13, 2026 by theInternational Energy Agency <\/strong>(IEA), the International Monetary Fund<\/strong> and the World Bank <\/strong>is a document worth reading carefully, not so much for what it says-which we already know in part-but for its tone. Three major institutions that normally proceed on parallel tracks chose in early April to establish a joint coordination group to respond together to the economic and energy effects of war. This is not a routine gesture. It is a signal. <\/p>\n\n

A lopsided shock that affects those already struggling<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n

The impact of the conflict is described by the three institutions as “significant, global and highly asymmetrical,” with effects weighing disproportionately on energy-importing countries, particularly low-income ones. More expensive oil and gas, skyrocketing fertilizer, growing food security concerns: the chain of transmission of the shock is almost mechanical, coming first and hardest on those with the least margin to absorb it. <\/p>\n\n

About one-fifth of the world’s energy needs pass through the Persian Gulf, and if the straits jam, the entire global economic system jams with them. Four-fifths of the approximately 21 million barrels per day passing through the Strait of Hormuz<\/a> in 2024 were destined for Asia. Countries such as Pakistan, Thailand, and India now find themselves at the forefront of this crisis, with shortages of cooking gas, public funds already in deficit to support prices, and arguments over reduced work weeks in order to save energy. <\/p>\n\n

But the asymmetry does not only affect countries in the Global South. Europe is among the areas most affected by the crisis around Hormuz, and this despite the progressive diversification of energy sources undertaken after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Indeed, the construction site of European energy autonomy is lagging behind and a new emergency has already knocked at the door. <\/p>\n\n

The Strait does not reopen<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n

“The situation remains extremely uncertain and maritime transit through the Strait of Hormuz has not yet normalized.” This seemingly technical sentence in the communiqu\u00e9 hides a much more complicated reality. Since U.S. and Israeli military operations against Iran began in late February 2026, commercial traffic through the Strait has plummeted: before the war, an average of 138-140 ships a day passed through, while on the most critical days of the conflict it has been down to one or zero tankers in 24 hours. <\/p>\n\n

The April 8 truce agreement formally reopened the passage, but only on paper. Iran continues to condition the transit with permits and tolls of up to two million dollars per ship. A reopening that in fact is not such. And even when it actually is, the statement is clear: it will take time for global supplies of key commodities to return to pre-conflict levels. <\/p>\n\n

Oil prices, after all, may not fall for a long time even after the war ends, because prices will not fall until the Straits are truly reopened and damaged oil facilities are repaired. They are, as a Columbia University researcher interviewed by CNN pointed out, “huge variables still unresolved.” <\/p>\n\n

Not just oil: fertilizer, food, tourism<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n

One of the least discussed aspects of this crisis is that it does not only affect energy in the narrow sense. Global supply chains have also been hit for commodities such as helium, phosphates, and aluminum<\/strong>, while tourism has been affected by flight disruptions at Gulf transit hubs.<\/p>\n\n

Chemically synthesized fertilizers deserve special attention.<\/strong> Their production is highly dependent on natural gas, and higher gas prices translate directly into higher agricultural costs, which are then passed on to food prices. In a world where food supply crises were already a structural concern for many regions, this channel of crisis transmission is likely to be particularly painful. According to the joint statement, fuel and fertilizer prices could remain high for an extended period, affecting the energy, food and many other industries. <\/p>\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The heads of the three major international economic and energy institutions sat around the same table and basically said one thing: the situation is serious, it is global, and it will not be resolved soon<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":17763,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"googlesitekit_rrm_CAowscnaCw:productID":"","_app_feed_target":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1784],"tags":[2096,2041],"class_list":["post-17762","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-conflicts","tag-iran","tag-war"],"yoast_head":"\nMiddle East war: warning from IEA, IMF and World Bank • Ultima Bozza<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The heads of the three major international economic and energy institutions sat around the same table and basically said one thing: the situation is serious, it is global, and it will not be resolved soon\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/middle-east-war-warning-from-iea-imf-and-world-bank\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Middle East war: warning from IEA, IMF and World Bank • Ultima Bozza\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The heads of the three major international economic and energy institutions sat around the same table and basically said one thing: the situation is serious, it is global, and it will not be resolved soon\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/middle-east-war-warning-from-iea-imf-and-world-bank\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Ultima Bozza\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ultimabozza\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-04-14T08:53:54+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-04-14T11:05:59+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Stretto-di-Hormuz-2.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"2047\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1150\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Silvia Natoli\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ultimabozza\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ultimabozza\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Silvia Natoli\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/middle-east-war-warning-from-iea-imf-and-world-bank\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/middle-east-war-warning-from-iea-imf-and-world-bank\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Silvia Natoli\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/fbc6062677dce3fae3b5c44cb52cf687\"},\"headline\":\"Middle East war: warning from IEA, IMF and World Bank\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-04-14T08:53:54+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-04-14T11:05:59+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/middle-east-war-warning-from-iea-imf-and-world-bank\/\"},\"wordCount\":690,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/middle-east-war-warning-from-iea-imf-and-world-bank\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Stretto-di-Hormuz-2.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"Iran\",\"war\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Conflicts\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"copyrightYear\":\"2026\",\"copyrightHolder\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/#organization\"}},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/middle-east-war-warning-from-iea-imf-and-world-bank\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/middle-east-war-warning-from-iea-imf-and-world-bank\/\",\"name\":\"Middle East war: warning from IEA, IMF and World Bank • Ultima Bozza\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/middle-east-war-warning-from-iea-imf-and-world-bank\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/middle-east-war-warning-from-iea-imf-and-world-bank\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Stretto-di-Hormuz-2.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-04-14T08:53:54+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-04-14T11:05:59+00:00\",\"description\":\"The heads of the three major international economic and energy institutions sat around the same table and basically said one thing: the situation is serious, it is global, and it will not be resolved soon\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/middle-east-war-warning-from-iea-imf-and-world-bank\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/middle-east-war-warning-from-iea-imf-and-world-bank\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/middle-east-war-warning-from-iea-imf-and-world-bank\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Stretto-di-Hormuz-2.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Stretto-di-Hormuz-2.jpg\",\"width\":2047,\"height\":1150},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/middle-east-war-warning-from-iea-imf-and-world-bank\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Middle East war: warning from IEA, IMF and World Bank\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/\",\"name\":\"Ultima Bozza\",\"description\":\"Il mondo che cambia\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/#organization\"},\"alternateName\":\"UltimaBozza\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/#organization\",\"name\":\"UltimaBozza\",\"alternateName\":\"Ultima Bozza\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/logo-ultimabozza.svg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/logo-ultimabozza.svg\",\"width\":384,\"height\":81,\"caption\":\"UltimaBozza\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ultimabozza\/\",\"https:\/\/x.com\/ultimabozza\",\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/ultimabozza\",\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/company\/ultimabozza\/\"],\"description\":\"Testata Registrata in data 20\/4\/2023 presso il Tribunale di Milano Num. R.G. 4720\/2023. Num. Reg. Stampa 48.\",\"email\":\"segreteria@ultimabozza.it\",\"legalName\":\"Societ\u00e0 Editoriale Ambrosiana A R.L.\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/fbc6062677dce3fae3b5c44cb52cf687\",\"name\":\"Silvia Natoli\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/author\/silvia-natoli\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Middle East war: warning from IEA, IMF and World Bank • Ultima Bozza","description":"The heads of the three major international economic and energy institutions sat around the same table and basically said one thing: the situation is serious, it is global, and it will not be resolved soon","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/middle-east-war-warning-from-iea-imf-and-world-bank\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Middle East war: warning from IEA, IMF and World Bank • Ultima Bozza","og_description":"The heads of the three major international economic and energy institutions sat around the same table and basically said one thing: the situation is serious, it is global, and it will not be resolved soon","og_url":"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/middle-east-war-warning-from-iea-imf-and-world-bank\/","og_site_name":"Ultima Bozza","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ultimabozza\/","article_published_time":"2026-04-14T08:53:54+00:00","article_modified_time":"2026-04-14T11:05:59+00:00","og_image":[{"width":2047,"height":1150,"url":"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Stretto-di-Hormuz-2.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Silvia Natoli","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@ultimabozza","twitter_site":"@ultimabozza","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Silvia Natoli","Est. reading time":"3 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/middle-east-war-warning-from-iea-imf-and-world-bank\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/middle-east-war-warning-from-iea-imf-and-world-bank\/"},"author":{"name":"Silvia Natoli","@id":"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/fbc6062677dce3fae3b5c44cb52cf687"},"headline":"Middle East war: warning from IEA, IMF and World Bank","datePublished":"2026-04-14T08:53:54+00:00","dateModified":"2026-04-14T11:05:59+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/middle-east-war-warning-from-iea-imf-and-world-bank\/"},"wordCount":690,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/middle-east-war-warning-from-iea-imf-and-world-bank\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Stretto-di-Hormuz-2.jpg","keywords":["Iran","war"],"articleSection":["Conflicts"],"inLanguage":"en-US","copyrightYear":"2026","copyrightHolder":{"@id":"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/#organization"}},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/middle-east-war-warning-from-iea-imf-and-world-bank\/","url":"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/middle-east-war-warning-from-iea-imf-and-world-bank\/","name":"Middle East war: warning from IEA, IMF and World Bank • Ultima Bozza","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/middle-east-war-warning-from-iea-imf-and-world-bank\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/middle-east-war-warning-from-iea-imf-and-world-bank\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Stretto-di-Hormuz-2.jpg","datePublished":"2026-04-14T08:53:54+00:00","dateModified":"2026-04-14T11:05:59+00:00","description":"The heads of the three major international economic and energy institutions sat around the same table and basically said one thing: the situation is serious, it is global, and it will not be resolved soon","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/middle-east-war-warning-from-iea-imf-and-world-bank\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/middle-east-war-warning-from-iea-imf-and-world-bank\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/middle-east-war-warning-from-iea-imf-and-world-bank\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Stretto-di-Hormuz-2.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Stretto-di-Hormuz-2.jpg","width":2047,"height":1150},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/middle-east-war-warning-from-iea-imf-and-world-bank\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Middle East war: warning from IEA, IMF and World Bank"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/#website","url":"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/","name":"Ultima Bozza","description":"Il mondo che cambia","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/#organization"},"alternateName":"UltimaBozza","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/#organization","name":"UltimaBozza","alternateName":"Ultima Bozza","url":"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/logo-ultimabozza.svg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/logo-ultimabozza.svg","width":384,"height":81,"caption":"UltimaBozza"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ultimabozza\/","https:\/\/x.com\/ultimabozza","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/ultimabozza","https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/company\/ultimabozza\/"],"description":"Testata Registrata in data 20\/4\/2023 presso il Tribunale di Milano Num. R.G. 4720\/2023. Num. Reg. Stampa 48.","email":"segreteria@ultimabozza.it","legalName":"Societ\u00e0 Editoriale Ambrosiana A R.L."},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/fbc6062677dce3fae3b5c44cb52cf687","name":"Silvia Natoli","url":"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/author\/silvia-natoli\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Stretto-di-Hormuz-2.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17762","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17762"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17762\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17765,"href":"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17762\/revisions\/17765"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/17763"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17762"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17762"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17762"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}