{"id":18947,"date":"2026-05-22T09:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-05-22T07:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/beech-beats-fir-1-0-and-it-has-the-changing-climate-to-thank\/"},"modified":"2026-05-25T12:40:31","modified_gmt":"2026-05-25T10:40:31","slug":"beech-beats-fir-1-0-and-it-has-the-changing-climate-to-thank","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/beech-beats-fir-1-0-and-it-has-the-changing-climate-to-thank\/","title":{"rendered":"Beech beats fir 1-0. And it has the changing climate to thank"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">European forests as we know them today may be gone by 2100. Not because of drought or devastating fires-though those threats remain real-but because of a shift in the balance among the tree species that have defined the continent&#8217;s landscape for centuries. <strong>Conifers<\/strong>, the undisputed protagonists of vast areas of forest from the Alps to Scandinavia, <strong>are in danger of losing ground to deciduous hardwoods<\/strong> such as beech and oak. <\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This is according to a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnr.it\/it\/comunicato-stampa\/14364\">study<\/a> published in the <strong>journal <em>Communications Earth &amp; Environment<\/em><\/strong>, the result of an international collaboration involving more than 30 researchers from across Europe. Participating for Italy were <strong>Alessio Collalti <\/strong>and <strong>Daniela Dalmonech<\/strong> from the Institute for Mediterranean Agricultural and Forestry Systems of the National Research Council in Perugia, Italy (CNR-Isafom). <\/p>\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-un-analisi-senza-precedenti\"><strong>An unprecedented analysis<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The research represents one of the most extensive ever conducted on forest species competition at the continental scale. To reconstruct future scenarios, the team developed a <em>deep-learning<\/em> system trained on more than 135 million forest years-simulated from 17 ecological process models developed in different European countries. An artificial intelligence tool then projected, on a continental scale, how the competitiveness of nine of Europe&#8217;s most relevant forest species would change under different climate scenarios.  <\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The results are stark: <strong>six of the nine species analyzed lose competitiveness under climate change scenarios<\/strong>, and these include all the major evergreen conifers considered in the study. <strong>Spruce, white spruce and lodgepole pine show marked decline<\/strong>, especially in the warmer and drier portions of their range. Deciduous broadleaf trees, on the other hand, hold up better and even strengthen their position in many contexts. <\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Under the most severe climate scenario, about 25 percent of Europe&#8217;s forests could face a dominant species change by 2100, totaling about 96 million hectares. The most vulnerable areas coincide with major ecological transition zones-the Alpine regions, southern Scandinavia, parts of the Mediterranean area-where species adapted to different climates already face each other at the limits of their respective ranges. <\/p>\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-dove-il-rischio-e-piu-alto\"><strong>Where the risk is highest<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It is at the warmer edges of the ranges that the most pronounced changes will be concentrated. These are the areas where trees already live close to their physiological limits: further increases in temperatures and frequency of water stresses may break balances that have been maintained for centuries. In these contexts, the change in forest composition could be relatively rapid.  <\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The scale of the phenomenon has implications that go far beyond ecology. <strong>Conifers now account for more than half of Europe&#8217;s forests<\/strong> and are a key component of both the timber industry and atmospheric carbon sequestration. Their significant decline would also redraw the map of the continent&#8217;s forest resources, with economic and climate impacts that are difficult to quantify today but impossible to ignore. <\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The study is not just a forecasting exercise. Its results have direct application value for those managing forests today-from silviculturists to land administrations to policymakers. Knowing where and when certain species are at risk of losing competitiveness makes it possible to take action in advance: choosing species better suited to future climates, diversifying forest composition, and strengthening ecosystem resilience before change becomes irreversible.  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Up to 96 million hectares of forests could change dominant species by the end of the century. This is revealed by an international study with the participation of the Italian CNR <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"googlesitekit_rrm_CAowscnaCw:productID":"","_app_feed_target":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1617,1596],"tags":[1767,2260],"class_list":["post-18947","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-biodiversity","category-climate","tag-climate","tag-forests"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.5 (Yoast SEO v26.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Beech beats fir 1-0. And it has the changing climate to thank &#8226; Ultima Bozza<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Up to 96 million hectares of forests could change dominant species by the end of the century. This is revealed by an international study with the participation of the Italian CNR\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/beech-beats-fir-1-0-and-it-has-the-changing-climate-to-thank\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Beech beats fir 1-0. And it has the changing climate to thank &#8226; Ultima Bozza\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Up to 96 million hectares of forests could change dominant species by the end of the century. This is revealed by an international study with the participation of the Italian CNR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/beech-beats-fir-1-0-and-it-has-the-changing-climate-to-thank\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Ultima Bozza\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ultimabozza\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-05-22T07:00:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-05-25T10:40:31+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/UltimaBozza_img_google.webp\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"675\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/webp\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Silvia Natoli\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ultimabozza\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ultimabozza\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Silvia Natoli\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/beech-beats-fir-1-0-and-it-has-the-changing-climate-to-thank\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/beech-beats-fir-1-0-and-it-has-the-changing-climate-to-thank\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Silvia Natoli\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/fbc6062677dce3fae3b5c44cb52cf687\"},\"headline\":\"Beech beats fir 1-0. 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