{"id":19127,"date":"2026-05-29T13:13:04","date_gmt":"2026-05-29T11:13:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/the-planet-over-the-threshold-2027-could-become-the-hottest-year-ever\/"},"modified":"2026-05-29T13:44:15","modified_gmt":"2026-05-29T11:44:15","slug":"the-planet-over-the-threshold-2027-could-become-the-hottest-year-ever","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/the-planet-over-the-threshold-2027-could-become-the-hottest-year-ever\/","title":{"rendered":"The Planet over the Threshold: 2027 could become the hottest year ever"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Global thermometers are giving no respite, as we reported<\/a> a few days ago. Climate projections<\/a> for the five-year period 2026-2030, prepared by the UK Met Office<\/strong> on behalf of theWorld Meteorological Organization <\/strong>(WMO), tell us that the Earth’s average annual surface temperature will be between 1.3 \u00b0C and 1.9 \u00b0C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900). There is a 91 percent chance that at least one year in this time frame will temporarily exceed the critical threshold of +1.5 \u00b0C. <\/p>\n\n

As Met Office researcher Melissa Seabrook<\/strong> explains, “The science is very clear: The window of opportunity to keep the global average temperature within 1.5 \u00b0C is closing rapidly<\/strong>.”<\/p>\n\n

The triggering of El Ni\u00f1o <\/strong><\/h3>\n\n

The year 2024 set the record for the hottest year on record. And new analysis indicates a high probability (86 percent) that this record will be broken by 2030, with 2027 listed as the prime suspect. The main cause lies in the continued increase in carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels<\/strong>, which will be compounded by the cyclical return of El Ni\u00f1o in the equatorial Pacific<\/strong>, expected late this year and early next. <\/p>\n\n

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration<\/strong> (NOAA) estimates a 96 percent chance of the phenomenon occurring, glimpsing a 35 percent chance for an extraordinarily intense event, a so-called “super El Ni\u00f1o.” Leon Hermanson, lead author of the WMO report, confirms the temporal dynamic: “An El Ni\u00f1o is expected by the end of 2026, which increases the odds that the following year, 2027, will be the next record-breaking year<\/strong>.” <\/p>\n\n

The Arctic anomaly <\/strong><\/h3>\n\n

While Europe experiences anomalous heat waves and South Asia deals with extreme temperatures, the Arctic is confirmed as the true epicenter of global warming. Over the next five extended winters (i.e., November through March), the polar region will experience temperatures as much as 2.8\u00b0C higher<\/strong> than the 1991-2020 average: an anomaly three and a half times faster than the planetary average, which will cause a drastic reduction of the sea ice in the Barents Sea, Bering Sea, and Sea of Okhotsk as early as March. <\/p>\n\n

This thermal imbalance alters weather systems. The WMO’s forecast model indicates increased precipitation in northern Europe, Alaska, Siberia and the Sahel<\/strong> between May and September. In contrast, the Amazon will experience markedly dry seasons<\/strong>, accelerating the vulnerability of one of the world’s largest green lungs.<\/p>\n\n

The human and economic cost of inaction<\/h3>\n\n

But the implications of the climate crisis are not just measured in tenths of a degree, but in structural impacts on the social and economic fabric. Current estimates indicate that the effects of global warming already cause one fatality per minute<\/strong>. The alternation of prolonged droughts and flash floods puts a strain on the continent’s infrastructure and agriculture. <\/p>\n\n

“Protecting human lives, businesses and economies from extreme heat and the many other rising costs of climate change is a top priority for every nation,” notes Simon Stiell<\/strong>, UN climate chief. The solution, the report says, lies in adecisive acceleration toward moving away from fossil fuels<\/strong>, driven in part by a market convenience factor: today, renewable energy is structurally cheaper and faster to produce<\/strong> than traditional sources. <\/p>\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The World Meteorological Organization’s new report puts the likelihood of exceeding the 2024 record at 86 percent within the next five years. 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