{"id":19578,"date":"2026-06-15T12:38:15","date_gmt":"2026-06-15T10:38:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/el-nino-is-back-in-the-pacific-and-it-brings-a-question-about-the-global-climate-back-into-the-spotlight\/"},"modified":"2026-06-15T12:49:20","modified_gmt":"2026-06-15T10:49:20","slug":"el-nino-is-back-in-the-pacific-and-it-brings-a-question-about-the-global-climate-back-into-the-spotlight","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/el-nino-is-back-in-the-pacific-and-it-brings-a-question-about-the-global-climate-back-into-the-spotlight\/","title":{"rendered":"El Ni\u00f1o is back in the Pacific. And it brings a question about the global climate back into the spotlight"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/close-your-umbrella-and-get-ready-for-el-nino\/\">El Ni\u00f1o<\/a> is back. The <strong>National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration<\/strong> (NOAA) <a href=\"https:\/\/www.noaa.gov\/news-release\/el-nino-forms-expected-to-strengthen-say-noaa-forecasters\">has confirmed<\/a> that conditions typical of a new phase of the phenomenon have now become established in the tropical Pacific. Forecasts also indicate a possible strengthening in the coming months, with a significant probability of reaching moderate or strong intensity by fall. <\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This is not, in and of itself, an exceptional event. El Ni\u00f1o occurs cyclically every two to seven years and is one of the main natural regulators of the Earth\u2019s climate: it affects ocean temperatures, alters precipitation patterns, and influences\u2014albeit temporarily\u2014global atmospheric balances. <strong>What is new is the context<\/strong>. <\/p>\n\n<h3 id=\"h-una-distinzione-spesso-trascurata\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">An often-overlooked distinction<\/h3>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Every new episode today unfolds on a planet that continues to accumulate heat<\/strong>. This is why scientists are closely monitoring the interaction between natural variability and global warming.In public debate, this distinction is often blurred: <strong>El Ni\u00f1o is a natural phenomenon, whereas climate change is a long-term trend linked in part to human activities<\/strong>. They are not the same thing, nor do they operate on the same timescale.  <\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">El Ni\u00f1o typically lasts for months and subsides within about a year. Climate change, on the other hand, is slowly but structurally altering the Earth\u2019s climate system. The two processes, however<a>, overlap: when a natural cycle of this kind occurs in a system that is already warmer, the effects can be amplified<\/a>.  <\/p>\n\n<h3 id=\"h-cosa-osservano-gli-scienziati\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">What scientists observe<\/h3>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">According to NOAA, sea <strong>surface temperature anomalies in the central and eastern Pacific could exceed two degrees Celsius above average in the coming months<\/strong>\u2014a threshold typically associated with the most intense events, sometimes referred to as &#8220;<strong>Super El Ni\u00f1o<\/strong>.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The strongest El Ni\u00f1o events in the past have been linked to significant climate impacts: <strong>droughts in Australia, India, and East Africa, and extreme rainfall with flooding along the Pacific coasts of the Americas<\/strong>. Global average temperatures also tend to be affected. <strong>The heat accumulated by the oceans is transferred to the atmosphere<\/strong>, contributing to a temporary rise in global temperatures. However, there is no direct, deterministic link between El Ni\u00f1o and individual weather events: climatology works with probabilities and trends, not certainties.  <\/p>\n\n<h3 id=\"h-e-l-italia\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">What about Italy?<\/h3>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Europe is far from the epicenter of the phenomenon, in the tropical Pacific, and the local effects are generally indirect. This does not mean that there is no impact. Changes in global atmospheric circulation can still affect the Mediterranean basin. Some seasonal models suggest the possibility of <strong>a hot and humid second half of summer<\/strong> and <strong>an autumn with greater atmospheric energy available<\/strong>.   <\/p>\n\n<h3 id=\"h-oltre-le-previsioni-stagionali\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Beyond seasonal forecasts<\/h3>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The return of El Ni\u00f1o serves as a reminder that the climate is the result of the ongoing interaction between natural processes and fundamental changes in the Earth system. Natural oscillations remain fundamental, but <strong>today they are acting on a profoundly altered planet: warmer oceans, increasingly frequent record-breaking temperatures, and greater climate instability<\/strong>. <\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That is why NOAA\u2019s confirmation is not just about forecasts for the coming months. It concerns the way in which one of the planet\u2019s main climate drivers is adapting to a new global reality. More than a forecast, it is an open question\u2014and likely one of the most important for understanding the climate in the era of global warming.   <\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>NOAA has confirmed the onset of the phenomenon in the tropical Pacific. When a natural cycle of this kind occurs in a system that is already warmer, the effects can be amplified: by how much? <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":35,"featured_media":19579,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"googlesitekit_rrm_CAowscnaCw:productID":"","_app_feed_target":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1597],"tags":[2508,2112],"class_list":["post-19578","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-climate-crisis","tag-el-nino","tag-global-warming"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.5 (Yoast SEO v26.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>El Ni\u00f1o is back in the Pacific. And it brings a question about the global climate back into the spotlight &#8226; Ultima Bozza<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"NOAA has confirmed the onset of the phenomenon in the tropical Pacific. 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When a natural cycle of this kind occurs in a system that is already warmer, the effects can be amplified: by how much?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/el-nino-is-back-in-the-pacific-and-it-brings-a-question-about-the-global-climate-back-into-the-spotlight\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Ultima Bozza\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ultimabozza\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-06-15T10:38:15+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-06-15T10:49:20+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/El-Nino-2.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1440\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"950\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Riccardo Liguori\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ultimabozza\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ultimabozza\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Riccardo Liguori\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/el-nino-is-back-in-the-pacific-and-it-brings-a-question-about-the-global-climate-back-into-the-spotlight\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/el-nino-is-back-in-the-pacific-and-it-brings-a-question-about-the-global-climate-back-into-the-spotlight\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Riccardo Liguori\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/831c7f9e2ea1901e1b151a723305668e\"},\"headline\":\"El Ni\u00f1o is back in the Pacific. 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