{"id":21205,"date":"2026-08-21T09:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-08-21T07:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/?p=21205"},"modified":"2026-08-05T11:59:06","modified_gmt":"2026-08-05T09:59:06","slug":"from-skepticism-to-denial-all-the-nuances-the-climate-debate-overlooks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/from-skepticism-to-denial-all-the-nuances-the-climate-debate-overlooks\/","title":{"rendered":"From Skepticism to Denial: All the Nuances the Climate Debate Overlooks"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

In June 2019, 91 signatories sent a petition to the Presidents of the Italian Republic, the Chamber of Deputies, and the Senate, challenging \u201cclimate alarmism\u201d and calling for a scaling back of emissions reduction policies. As documented by Climalteranti.it<\/a>, the vast majority of the signatories had no specific expertise in climate science<\/strong>. The petition did not challenge any specific IPCC data on the matter; rather, it challenged the intensity with which the scientific community communicated its findings. During the same period, the IPCC\u2019s Sixth Assessment Report<\/strong> was finalizing analyses that would classify human influence on the climate system as \u201cunequivocal\u201d: a term that, in the IPCC lexicon, carries no associated probability, as it denotes a directly observable fact that transcends the probabilistic scale. In public discourse, \u201cskepticism\u201d and \u201cdoubt\u201d describe very different positions. In the case of the petition, they described the same thing. <\/p>\n\n

The IPCC uses two distinct scales to communicate scientific uncertainty. The first is a confidence scale (ranging from very low to very high), based on the quality and quantity of the available evidence and the level of agreement among researchers. The second is a probability scale, with different levels<\/a> ranging from \u201cvirtually certain\u201d (99\u2013100%) to \u201cexceptionally unlikely\u201d (0\u20131%). These scales are applied to specific findings: the climate\u2019s sensitivity to a doubling of CO\u2082, the contribution of ice sheet melting to sea-level rise, and the future frequency of extreme events. The conclusion that human influence on the climate system is \u201cunequivocal,\u201d as stated in the AR6 WGI Summary for Policymakers<\/a>, falls outside the probability scale: it describes a fact directly observable from the data, not a projection. <\/p>\n\n

Scientific skepticism has a specific meaning: it is the stance that requires verifiable evidence before accepting a claim, that applies the principle of falsifiability, and that revises conclusions in light of new data. A scientist who challenges a specific estimate of climate sensitivity by citing an alternative measurement method is exercising scientific skepticism. Someone who denies human influence on the climate\u2014in contrast to the converging evidence from decades of observations and thousands of studies\u2014is taking a different position. The documented problem is that in public discourse, these two positions are described using the same terms, producing two simultaneous effects: those who challenge specific estimates with methodological arguments are equated with systematic denial; those who systematically deny the influence of human activity can claim the epistemic legitimacy of \u201cscientific skepticism.\u201d <\/p>\n\n

A doctor who seeks a second opinion before prescribing chemotherapy is exercising clinical caution. A patient who refuses to accept any diagnosis of cancer after four positive biopsies is taking a different stance. Calling both of these \u201cquestioning the diagnosis\u201d places them in the same category, but they require opposite clinical responses. <\/p>\n\n

The IPCC has formalized its uncertainty scales precisely to make this distinction operational in scientific communication. A statement classified as \u201cvirtually certain\u201d (99\u2013100%) is not in the same epistemic position as a statement with \u201cmedium confidence\u201d regarding a specific parameter. Public discourse rarely makes this distinction. Instead, it uses a binary framework: those who challenge climate policy are labeled \u201cdeniers,\u201d while those who support it are labeled \u201calarmists,\u201d regardless of the specific issue being discussed or the degree of certainty with which the IPCC has classified it. The IPCC scale exists to prevent this oversimplification: not all climate uncertainties are equivalent, and not all challenges are of the same type. <\/p>\n\n

The double standard has been a recurring theme in the Italian debate in recent years. On the one hand, those who express reservations about specific scenarios, projection methodologies, or the effectiveness of individual measures are sometimes equated, in public discourse, with those who deny the basic facts of climate change. On the other hand, those who wish to delay or limit climate policies may present themselves as voicing \u201cscientific doubt\u201d regarding findings that the IPCC classifies as having high or very high confidence. The 2019 petition is a documented example of the second mechanism. The difficulty of distinguishing it from the first\u2014in the absence of a reference to the specific confidence scale\u2014is part of the mechanism itself. <\/p>\n\n

It must be acknowledged that the distinction between systematic denial and methodological skepticism is not always clear-cut. There are intermediate positions, scientifically unresolved questions, and areas where consensus is still emerging. Methodological skepticism is epistemically necessary: without it, science cannot correct itself. The history of climate science demonstrates this: some initial estimates of climate sensitivity have been revised, some scenarios reformulated, and some measurement methods replaced by more accurate ones. The documented problem is not that doubt is wrong: it is that \u201cdoubt,\u201d \u201cskepticism,\u201d and \u201cdenial\u201d are used as synonyms in public discourse, making it difficult to distinguish between challenging a specific parameter\u2014where scientific debate is legitimate\u2014and denying established findings\u2014where the controversy is political. <\/p>\n\n

This column explores climate-related terms whose technical meanings differ from their common perceptions. “\u201cSkepticism,\u201d \u201cdenial,\u201d and \u201cdoubt\u201d introduce a new dynamic: not a technical term that loses precision, but a continuous spectrum of epistemic positions that, in public discourse, is compressed into a dichotomy, simultaneously producing two opposing effects on the positions at either end of the spectrum. <\/p>\n\n

The next time you read \u201cscientific skepticism\u201d or \u201cdenialism\u201d in an article or political statement, there\u2019s one question to ask: Which specific finding is being contested, and with what level of confidence had the IPCC classified it? If the finding has a high or very high level of confidence and the challenge does not cite a specific alternative method, the word \u201cskepticism\u201d is not describing an epistemic position. <\/p>\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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