{"id":21668,"date":"2026-09-03T12:20:03","date_gmt":"2026-09-03T10:20:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/goodbye-to-1-5-degrees-11-years-after-paris-the-un-admits-that-the-safety-threshold-has-been-breached\/"},"modified":"2026-09-03T13:01:46","modified_gmt":"2026-09-03T11:01:46","slug":"goodbye-to-1-5-degrees-11-years-after-paris-the-un-admits-that-the-safety-threshold-has-been-breached","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/goodbye-to-1-5-degrees-11-years-after-paris-the-un-admits-that-the-safety-threshold-has-been-breached\/","title":{"rendered":"Goodbye to 1.5 degrees: 11 years after Paris, the UN admits that the safety threshold has been breached"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

For years, it was the number around which every climate summit revolved, repeated like a mantra: one and a half degrees. It was the temperature not to be exceeded, the ceiling that governments had set for themselves in Paris in 2015 to keep the planet within a safe zone: major glaciers remaining in place, archipelagos above sea level, and a curb on hurricanes. Starting today, that number takes on a new meaning. In a report<\/a> bluntly titled *Limiting Overshoot*<\/em>, the United Nations Environment Programme<\/strong> (UNEP) has, for the first time, given its official stamp of approval to what climate scientists have been saying for some time: the 1.5-degree threshold will be exceeded\u2014not just for a single year, but on a lasting basis.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

The heart of the document lies in a terse sentence: \u201cThe challenge has shifted from preventing overshoot to managing it.\u201d It sounds technical, but it captures a defeat. The goal that had become a slogan in Paris\u2014printed on banners, invoked at every conference\u2014will not hold up. And not because there was a lack of guidance on the countermeasures needed to ensure our safety: what ate away at the remaining time was the slow pace of the ecological transition and the pressure from climate denialist movements, which for years have held back policies to reduce emissions.<\/p>\n\n

The temperature range<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n

How high global temperatures will rise\u2014and for how long\u2014depends on decisions made now. The projections show a wide range. In the best-case scenario\u2014emissions halved by 2035\u2014the peak would stabilize at around 1.8 degrees. If current policies continue, however, the trajectory points toward 2.6 degrees by the end of the century.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

In between lies a chasm, because every additional tenth of a degree translates into longer, hotter summers, more persistent droughts, and rains that turn into floods when they do come. There are no positive outcomes if we exceed 1.5 degrees, UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen made clear: beyond that threshold, the impacts become faster, more violent, and more prolonged, and the death toll is bound to rise.<\/p>\n\n

The Cost of Exceeding the Limit<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n

What alarms scientists most are the points of no return: the thresholds beyond which certain processes are set in motion on their own and cannot be reversed. Above 1.5 degrees, it becomes more likely that the large ice sheets will destabilize and that the Amazon rainforest will slide toward collapse. In a 3-degree scenario, the planet\u2019s glacial reserves could lose more than a quarter of their mass by 2100. These effects will ripple through the ecosystem all the way to our dinner tables: according to UN estimates, global agricultural production could decline by up to 14% within twenty-five years<\/strong>. And for the lowest-lying archipelagos in the Pacific and the Caribbean, the prospect is that they will end up underwater.<\/p>\n\n

A decline is still possible<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n

Yet the report is not an obituary. There is still room to get back on a path where the damage is limited, provided we act quickly and in the right direction: the approach has a textbook name\u2014\u201csurpass, peak, and decline\u201d\u2014and aims to bring the temperature back within the safety threshold as quickly as possible.<\/p>\n\n

The first step is to immediately cut greenhouse gas emissions, starting with methane, a gas with a global warming potential up to eighty times greater than that of carbon dioxide in the short term. The second is to begin removing carbon already released into the atmosphere. On this point, the authors are unequivocal: no single technological shortcut will suffice on its own, and carbon capture must be used in conjunction with emission cuts\u2014not as an excuse to postpone them.<\/p>\n\n

Not everyone, however, agrees with this tone. The WWF reiterates<\/a> that 1.5 degrees remains a non-negotiable safety threshold, and that it is emissions that must be reduced, not ambition. Climate Analytics<\/a> is even more blunt, arguing that a document that treats the threshold as a lost cause risks sounding like a call to give up rather than a call to action. UN Secretary-General Ant\u00f3nio Guterres tries to reconcile the two perspectives: the extreme heat, wildfires, and floods of the past summer, he warns, are just a taste of what lies ahead, and the response requires a leap in ambition. Because one thing is certain: even if the thermometer one day drops back below the threshold, the world we leave behind will never return.<\/p>\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The most conservative threshold set by the 2015 agreement is now considered to have been exceeded. This isn\u2019t the end of the game, the agency warns, but a shift in focus toward minimizing damage: the goal is no longer to avoid exceeding the threshold, but rather to make sure the excess is as brief as possible<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":21669,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"googlesitekit_rrm_CAowscnaCw:productID":"","_app_feed_target":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1597],"tags":[1700],"class_list":["post-21668","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-climate-crisis","tag-un"],"yoast_head":"\nGoodbye to 1.5 degrees: 11 years after Paris, the UN admits that the safety threshold has been breached • Ultima Bozza<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The most conservative threshold set by the 2015 agreement is now considered to have been exceeded. 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