{"id":22493,"date":"2026-10-02T09:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-10-02T07:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/?p=22493"},"modified":"2026-10-01T23:25:10","modified_gmt":"2026-10-01T21:25:10","slug":"brazil-goes-to-the-polls-and-the-amazon-is-at-stake-20000-km%c2%b2-saved-under-lula","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/brazil-goes-to-the-polls-and-the-amazon-is-at-stake-20000-km%c2%b2-saved-under-lula\/","title":{"rendered":"Brazil Goes to the Polls, and the Amazon Is at Stake: 20,000 km\u00b2 Saved Under Lula"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On October 4, Brazilians will elect their new head of state, but in a sense, the Amazon is also on the ballot. <strong>Brazil is home to nearly 60% of the world\u2019s largest rainforest, and deforestation is the main driver of its emissions, making it the fourth-largest contributor to global climate change<\/strong>. The two frontrunners\u2014incumbent President <strong>Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva<\/strong> and Senator <strong>Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro<\/strong>, son of former President Jair, who is currently in prison for the 2022 coup attempt\u2014are neck and neck. And they hold opposing views on the forest.<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Carbon Brief calculated just how significant this difference is <em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/analysis-lula-presidency-saved-at-least-20000km2-of-brazilian-amazon-since-2022\">Carbon Brief<\/a><\/em>: Since Lula took office, at least 20,000 square kilometers of the Amazon have been spared compared to a scenario in which Jair Bolsonaro remained in power. This area is comparable to that of Slovenia, slightly larger than Puglia.<\/p>\n\n<h3 id=\"h-tagli-dimezzati-in-tre-anni\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Cuts Halved Over Three Years<\/h3>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Between 2019 and 2022, Bolsonaro Sr. had weakened regulations, cut funding to enforcement agencies, and given free rein to illegal activities<\/strong>, while the Forest Code\u2014the law requiring landowners to preserve a certain percentage of forest\u2014remained a dead letter. Lula has reversed course: <strong>the action plan against deforestation has been reinstated, a \u201czero deforestation\u201d target has been set for 2030, and there will be more on-site inspections under the leadership of Environment Minister Marina Silva<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The figures from the INPE space agency speak for themselves: <strong>the area lost dropped from 11,594 square kilometers in 2022 to 5,731 in 2025<\/strong>. Preliminary satellite alerts for the period August 2025\u2013July 2026 indicate 2,874 square kilometers, a figure that will increase with the final measurements but could still mark the lowest level since 1988.<\/p>\n\n<h3 id=\"h-una-stima-prudente\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">A conservative estimate<\/h3>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The comparison is based on a 2023 study by the University of Oxford, IASA, and INPE, which simulated a scenario in which Brazil did not enforce the Forest Code\u2014a scenario used here as an approximation of a second term for Jair Bolsonaro. <strong>Aline Soterroni<\/strong>, the Oxford researcher who led the study, emphasizes that <strong>the decline demonstrates how quickly deforestation responds to political will<\/strong>. But she cautions that the scenario is conservative: it projects high but stable deforestation rates and does not account for illegal logging encouraged by an absent state.<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Claudio Angelo<\/strong>,<a href=\"https:\/\/oc.eco.br\/\">of the Observat\u00f3rio do Clima<\/a>, is convinced that if Bolsonaro were reelected, the political signal would trigger a surge in illegal mining and logging, at rates much higher than during his first term.<\/p>\n\n<h3 id=\"h-programmi-agli-antipodi\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Programs at Opposite Ends of the World<\/h3>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">According to the Observat\u00f3rio do Clima, <strong>Lula\u2019s platform includes 16 concrete environmental commitments, including a 59\u201367% reduction in emissions by 2035 compared to 2005<\/strong>. Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro\u2019s platform includes only one such commitment, compared to seven proposals that are openly harmful to the environment. <strong>The right-wing candidate promises to eliminate illegal deforestation by 2029, but in the past he has attempted to rewrite the Forest Code to open up new areas for exploitation<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ecologist <strong>David Lapola<\/strong> of the University of Campinas points out that it takes only a few months to undo what decades of environmental policies have built. Patricia Pinho of the IPAM research institute speaks of a possible \u201cenormous disaster.\u201d<\/p>\n\n<h3 id=\"h-le-altre-incognite\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Other Unknowns<\/h3>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">No matter who wins, the match won\u2019t end on October 4. This year, major grain traders have abandoned the moratorium on Amazonian soy, which in its first decade had prevented the clearing of about 18,000 square kilometers of forest: without the moratorium, one study estimates that another 14,000 square kilometers would be lost by 2036.<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Voting is also taking place for Congress, where the right wing controls half the seats and, in 2025, already overrode Lula\u2019s veto of the so-called \u201cdevastation law.\u201d According to <em>Mongabay<\/em>, an online news outlet specializing in environmental issues, with Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro as president, 95% of the Amazon would fall under the control of right-wing governments favorable to agribusiness and mining.<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>If no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote, a runoff election is scheduled for October 25<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>According to an analysis by Carbon Brief, the reinstatement of restrictions prevented the destruction of an area the size of Slovenia. On October 4, the outgoing president will face off against Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro\u2014the two are neck and neck in the polls\u2014and scientists fear a sharp step backward.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":22494,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"googlesitekit_rrm_CAowscnaCw:productID":"","_app_feed_target":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1620],"tags":[2185,1723,2686],"class_list":["post-22493","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politics","tag-amazon-2","tag-brazil","tag-lula"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.5 (Yoast SEO v26.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Brazil Goes to the Polls, and the Amazon Is at Stake: 20,000 km\u00b2 Saved Under Lula &#8226; Ultima Bozza<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"According to an analysis by Carbon Brief, the reinstatement of restrictions prevented the destruction of an area the size of Slovenia. On October 4, the outgoing president will face off against Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro\u2014the two are neck and neck in the polls\u2014and scientists fear a sharp step backward.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/brazil-goes-to-the-polls-and-the-amazon-is-at-stake-20000-km%c2%b2-saved-under-lula\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Brazil Goes to the Polls, and the Amazon Is at Stake: 20,000 km\u00b2 Saved Under Lula &#8226; Ultima Bozza\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"According to an analysis by Carbon Brief, the reinstatement of restrictions prevented the destruction of an area the size of Slovenia. On October 4, the outgoing president will face off against Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro\u2014the two are neck and neck in the polls\u2014and scientists fear a sharp step backward.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/brazil-goes-to-the-polls-and-the-amazon-is-at-stake-20000-km%c2%b2-saved-under-lula\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Ultima Bozza\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ultimabozza\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-10-02T07:00:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Amazzonia-2.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1500\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1000\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Silvia Natoli\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ultimabozza\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ultimabozza\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Silvia Natoli\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/brazil-goes-to-the-polls-and-the-amazon-is-at-stake-20000-km%c2%b2-saved-under-lula\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/brazil-goes-to-the-polls-and-the-amazon-is-at-stake-20000-km%c2%b2-saved-under-lula\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Silvia Natoli\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/fbc6062677dce3fae3b5c44cb52cf687\"},\"headline\":\"Brazil Goes to the Polls, and the Amazon Is at Stake: 20,000 km\u00b2 Saved Under Lula\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-10-02T07:00:00+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/brazil-goes-to-the-polls-and-the-amazon-is-at-stake-20000-km%c2%b2-saved-under-lula\/\"},\"wordCount\":658,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/brazil-goes-to-the-polls-and-the-amazon-is-at-stake-20000-km%c2%b2-saved-under-lula\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Amazzonia-2.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"amazon\",\"Brazil\",\"Lula\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Politics\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"copyrightYear\":\"2026\",\"copyrightHolder\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/#organization\"}},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/brazil-goes-to-the-polls-and-the-amazon-is-at-stake-20000-km%c2%b2-saved-under-lula\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/brazil-goes-to-the-polls-and-the-amazon-is-at-stake-20000-km%c2%b2-saved-under-lula\/\",\"name\":\"Brazil Goes to the Polls, and the Amazon Is at Stake: 20,000 km\u00b2 Saved Under Lula &#8226; Ultima Bozza\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/brazil-goes-to-the-polls-and-the-amazon-is-at-stake-20000-km%c2%b2-saved-under-lula\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/brazil-goes-to-the-polls-and-the-amazon-is-at-stake-20000-km%c2%b2-saved-under-lula\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Amazzonia-2.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-10-02T07:00:00+00:00\",\"description\":\"According to an analysis by Carbon Brief, the reinstatement of restrictions prevented the destruction of an area the size of Slovenia. 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