{"id":22656,"date":"2026-10-08T17:07:44","date_gmt":"2026-10-08T15:07:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/penguins-the-worlds-largest-colony-has-lost-63-of-its-population-in-14-years\/"},"modified":"2026-10-08T17:26:18","modified_gmt":"2026-10-08T15:26:18","slug":"penguins-the-worlds-largest-colony-has-lost-63-of-its-population-in-14-years","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/penguins-the-worlds-largest-colony-has-lost-63-of-its-population-in-14-years\/","title":{"rendered":"Penguins: The world’s largest colony has lost 63% of its population in 14 years"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

In 2011, Zavodovski\u2014a deserted volcanic island in the South Atlantic and the northernmost of the South Sandwich Islands\u2014 was home to the largest penguin<\/a> colony on the planet<\/strong>: 600,000 chinstrap penguins (Pygoscelis antarcticus<\/em>) and 90,000 macaroni penguins (Eudyptes chrysolophus<\/em>). Fourteen years later, that record has been surpassed elsewhere. A study by the British Antarctic Survey<\/em> and other institutions, published<\/a> in *Current Biology*<\/em>, estimates that the number of chinstrap penguin breeding pairs has fallen from 542,675 to 201,182 between 2011 and 2025: a 62.93% decline. \u201cA massive population collapse,\u201d as<\/a> Norman Ratcliffe<\/strong>, who led the research, described it to The Guardian<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n

A Count from Above<\/h3>\n\n

The researchers counted the pairs: each nest occupied by a bird or a brooding pair counts as one. In December 2023, six of them landed on the island and flew over the colonies with a drone. A computer program counted the nests in the images, and the results were verified across 114 sample areas. A comparison with satellite images taken between 2011 and 2025 showed that the area occupied by chinstrap penguins is shrinking by 9.46% each year at a steady rate. For the population, this means a decline of about 7% per year.<\/p>\n\n

The steady rhythm is also one of the clues that rule out other explanations. Mount Curry, the island\u2019s volcano, erupted in March 2016, but the decline had already begun and there were no tremors following the eruption; a catastrophe caused by ash and gas would have left a sudden spike in the data. Furthermore, the penguins avoid the plain at the foot of the crater. Industrial fishing for<\/p>\n\n

Krill, the small crustacean on which they feed, has always been scarce in the area and disappeared entirely in the early 1990s. Humpback whales, whose numbers have returned to pre-whaling levels, consume between 19% and 29% of the krill in the management area, but they frequent waters farther offshore than those where penguins forage during the breeding season. As for the macaroni penguins, the other species on the island, there are large abandoned nesting areas around the colonies: there is no shortage of space, so competition is minimal.<\/p>\n\n

Krill are moving south<\/h3>\n\n

The authors believe the most likely cause is global warming<\/strong>. The krill have shifted southward, and chinstrap penguins\u2014which feed almost exclusively on krill\u2014are finding less of it. Satellite trackers attached to twelve penguins show that they are hunting in cold waters northwest of the island. The region is warming rapidly: according to The Guardian<\/em>, winter temperatures on the Antarctic Peninsula have risen by 5 degrees compared to pre-industrial levels, and on June 6, the Argentine Esperanza Station recorded 15.4 degrees\u2014about 20 degrees above the seasonal average\u2014a figure scientists have called \u201ccrazy\u201d.<\/p>\n\n

Macaroni, on the other hand, have a more varied diet, which includes fish and other crustaceans, and they hunt in the warmer waters to the northeast. Their numbers rose from 168,936 pairs in 2011 to 216,606 in 2025, with a 28.22% increase concentrated through 2016.<\/p>\n\n

A species to be reclassified<\/h3>\n\n

The Australian Sandwich Islands are home to about 38% of the world\u2019s chinstrap penguins, and until now, the species was believed to be safe there. If the decline observed by Zavodovski were true for the entire archipelago, 95.8% of projections over three generations (28 years) would fall into the \u201cEndangered\u201d category of the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). Today, the species is classified as \u201cleast concern,\u201d the lowest risk level.<\/p>\n\n

The picture remains incomplete. The islands of Candlemas, Visokoi, and Saunders\u2014which each hosted more than 150,000 breeding pairs in 2011\u2014have not been re-surveyed, and the authors are calling for new censuses.<\/p>\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A study on Zavodovski Island in Antarctica links the decline in the population of chinstrap penguins (Pygoscelis antarcticus) to krill migrating southward due to global warming. 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