{"id":22965,"date":"2026-10-20T10:18:47","date_gmt":"2026-10-20T08:18:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/the-amazon-hangs-in-the-balance-with-brazils-election\/"},"modified":"2026-10-20T11:14:28","modified_gmt":"2026-10-20T09:14:28","slug":"the-amazon-hangs-in-the-balance-with-brazils-election","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ultimabozza.it\/en\/the-amazon-hangs-in-the-balance-with-brazils-election\/","title":{"rendered":"The Amazon Hangs in the Balance with Brazil’s Election"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Never before have there been so few chainsaws in the Amazon, and never before has there been so much uncertainty about its future. On Friday, October 16,INPE<\/a>, the Brazilian Space Agency, released data confirming this improvement: between August 2025 and July 2026, approximately 3,335 square kilometers of forest were cleared\u201442% less than the previous year<\/strong> and the lowest figure in the historical record, which began in 1988. The previous record was set in 2011\u20132012, at 4,571 km\u00b2. And even in the Cerrado\u2014the savanna that makes fewer headlines\u2014deforestation fell by 24%, to 5,517 km\u00b2.<\/p>\n\n

It\u2019s a shame that the good news comes just nine days before a runoff election that Lula risks losing<\/strong>. In the first round on October 4, Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro<\/strong>, the eldest son of former President Jair, received 47.03% of the valid votes, compared to 45.16% for the incumbent president; the two will face off on Sunday, October 25<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n

The programs use different language. Lula promises net-zero deforestation by 2030<\/strong>, with forest restoration to offset every loss, whether legal or illegal. Fl\u00e1vio counters with a play on words: an end to illegal deforestation by 2029. The trick lies entirely in the adjective, which the platform is careful not to define. In the same document, the right-wing candidate proposes that environmental permits be issued automatically if regulatory agencies fail to respond in time, and that the conditions attached to them remain in effect for up to 20 years. The plan is clear: fewer trees cut down illegally, but only because the boundaries of what is permitted are being expanded.<\/p>\n\n

The lobby supporting Bolsonaro<\/h3>\n\n

The agribusiness sector has already chosen which side to take. The Parliamentary Agricultural Front, the sector\u2019s main lobby group, has backed Fl\u00e1vio<\/strong>, who in return has promised to let them choose the agriculture minister. And Congress has already changed: the Bolsonaro party won 121 seats in the Chamber of Deputies\u2014more than any single party has ever won since 1988.<\/p>\n\n

Meanwhile, the campaign is also being waged with lighters. Authorities are investigating whether some fires were set intentionally, for political reasons, ahead of the election. And on October 12 , *Folha de S.Paulo*<\/em> revealed eight audio messages sent via WhatsApp to the Parakan\u00e3 Indigenous people: they<\/strong> announce that fazendeiros will invade the Apyterewa Indigenous territory in Par\u00e1 if Fl\u00e1vio wins on Sunday<\/strong>. Par\u00e1, not coincidentally, is the state with the highest rate of deforestation, at 1,130 km\u00b2.<\/p>\n\n

A clash between two opposing worlds<\/h3>\n\n

Not even Lula\u2019s camp is without its problems. His welfare program is also funded by Petrobras\u2019s new offshore drilling operations in the sea off the mouth of the Amazon River<\/strong>\u2014a contradiction that environmentalists find unforgivable. And former Environment Minister Marina Silva, who spearheaded the decline in deforestation, failed to win a seat in the Senate.<\/p>\n\n

The fact remains, however, that the difference between the two camps is vast. On the one hand, there is a legitimized assault on the foundations that underpin the country\u2019s ecological and social balance (with significant global repercussions). On the other, a change of course aimed at greater protection of human and environmental fragility.<\/p>\n\n

Ana Yang, director of the Environment and Society Center at Chatham House, points out that in the Amazon, what matters most is the signal sent by the president: it can signal that deforestation has become more difficult, or that it can resume. With El Ni\u00f1o looming and the forest reduced to a tinderbox by the drought, that signal will carry decisive weight on Sunday.<\/p>\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Deforestation is at its lowest level since 1988, but the runoff election on Sunday, October 25, between Lula and Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro could set the chainsaws in motion again<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":22966,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"googlesitekit_rrm_CAowscnaCw:productID":"","_app_feed_target":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1620],"tags":[2185],"class_list":["post-22965","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politics","tag-amazon-2"],"yoast_head":"\nThe Amazon Hangs in the Balance with Brazil's Election • Ultima Bozza<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Deforestation is at its lowest level since 1988, but the runoff election on Sunday, October 25, between Lula and Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro could set the chainsaws in motion again\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, 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