This year, Easter eggs cost more and weigh less. A dynamic that emerges clearly among the shelves and originates far away, in the cocoa plantations of West Africa. Indeed, the rise in price follows a precise trajectory: that of the raw material on international markets, driven by declining harvests and increasingly unstable weather conditions. The effect is transferred throughout the supply chain, all the way to final consumption, where it translates into higher prices and downsized products.
The climate node
The cocoa supply chain concentrates about 60 percent of world production in West Africa, between Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana. Here, alternating rains and dry seasons ensure agricultural yields. Today this balance is compromised.
In 2023, exceptional rainfall encouraged the spread of black rot, a fungal disease that attacks cocoa cocoa pods by causing them to rot directly on the plant and rendering the seeds unusable. Drought and high temperatures followed, drastically reducing productivity. In some areas the decline has been as much as 40 percent in the past three years. Raw material contracts, prices react.
Direct effect on prices
Chocolate led price increases in the European Union in 2025, with an average price increase of 18 percent, the highest among food products. In Italy, industrial Easter eggs in some cases exceed 77 euros per kilo, with year-on-year increases of up to 10 percent.
Alongside price increases, weight reduction is consolidating: smaller quantities of product for the same price. 84 percent of consumers say they have encountered it, while nearly half report reduced sizes. A commercial lever that transfers costs without intervening on the nominal price.
Consumption changes
Purchasing behavior adapts rapidly. Three out of four Italians change habits: use of discount stores grows, brand comparison increases, impulse buying is reduced. The iconic holiday product enters a more selective logic.
The market remains substantial, with over 600 million euros annually in eggs and doves, but it is moving on tighter margins and more price-conscious demand.
The role of policies
Climate pressure is then accompanied by financial pressure. Producing countries also depend on international funds to adapt crops to more extreme weather conditions. In recent months, several European governments have reduced allocations for climate cooperation. Fewer resources mean less capacity to intervene on agricultural infrastructure and water systems. The consequence falls on supply stability and fuels price volatility. Looking forward, this combination of factors risks making cocoa a commodity increasingly exposed to sudden shocks.
Alternatives remain marginal
Research looks to carob, which can be grown in arid settings with low water requirements but its use remains limited and far from a large-scale replacement for cocoa. The chocolate market thus enters a new phase: less predictable availability, higher costs, more cautious consumption. Easter eggs become a concrete indicator of this transformation.
