“I don’t believe in it, but I use it when it suits me.“ That seems to be Trump’s motto when it comes to the climate crisis. Two presidencies spent denying it, a flood of orders to censor it on federal websites, mass firings to eliminate climate scientists doing their jobs, cuts to international institutions that safeguard collective security. But when the World Cup rolls around and it’s time to try to snag a little boost for Team USA (perhaps hoping for a ripple effect on his waning popularity), the Donald brings the abnormal heat out of official hiding and uses it tactically.
A new analysis of Climate Central data, conducted by the organization Round Our Way, suggests that climate change could influence the outcome of the soccer tournament by favoring some national teams and significantly penalizing others. Projections indicate that in 97 of the 104 scheduled matches, the likelihood of critical temperatures (above 28 °C) will increase precisely because of emissions that alter the global climate.
The 28-degree threshold was not chosen at random. Scientific research indicates that playing in temperatures above that threshold, combined with high humidity, puts a severe strain on athletes both physically and cognitively: it impairs decision-making, reduces concentration, increases fatigue, and lengthens recovery times between matches. In a tournament like the World Cup, where teams may find themselves playing every three or four days, the accumulation of heat stress can make the difference between lifting the trophy and being eliminated.
Argentina, the hottest road
Among the top favorites, Argentina faces the toughest challenge in terms of weather (Milei, a close friend of Trump’s but a rival in the World Cup, might not be too pleased about that). Ranked third by FIFA, the reigning world champion could play 6 or 7 matches in temperatures of 28 °C or higher: the worst situation among all 16 teams in the tournament.
For a team that relies on players like Lionel Messi—who will be 38 years old at the 2026 World Cup—and on a style of play that demands high intensity and constant pressing, the weather is a significant factor. Physical recovery becomes a crucial factor, and the heat reduces the performance margins of even the most well-prepared athletes.
Spain and Portugal in the spotlight
Spain isn’t faring any better; ranked second in the FIFA rankings and considered by many to be the tournament’s top favorite. The Spanish national team, with its possession-based style of play centered on quick ball movement and high pressure, will have to play 5 or 6 matches in extreme heat. This makes it one of the teams most exposed to climate-related risks.
Cristiano Ronaldo’s Portugal, also nearing the end of his career, faces roughly the same level of heat-related risk. The Portuguese team, ranked fifth by FIFA, will have to cope with temperatures that could weigh down their legs at decisive moments. Scotland, too, should expect to play about five matches in intense heat if it manages to reach the final in New Jersey.
France and England are cooler
Looking at the data, France and England seem to be in a slightly better position. The probability calculations indicate that the French will play 3 or 4 matches in temperatures above 28 °C, while the English will play 4 or 5. Their paths to the final mostly take them through venues with less extreme weather conditions, which could translate into a significant advantage in the final stages of the tournament, when accumulated fatigue begins to take its toll.
The biggest advantage, however, goes to the United States. According to the estimates cited, the host nation will play only three matches in temperatures of 28°C or higher—the lowest figure among all 16 teams. The U.S. thus finds itself in the privileged position of facing the tournament under the least stressful weather conditions, with stadiums selected in geographically cooler areas or at least less prone to the heat waves forecast for the summer of 2026.In a tournament where the balance of power is often razor-thin, even reducing the heat stress of one or two matches can affect athletic performance at crucial moments.
In short, the 2026 World Cup will be played against an additional opponent that doesn’t appear on any bracket: the weather. And this opponent is not neutral. It favors those lucky enough to play in cooler venues and penalizes those, like Argentina or Spain, who will have to work twice as hard to make it to the end.
When it comes to supporting UN research—which raises concerns among the fossil fuel industry—Trump denies the climate evidence. When it comes to trying to win back votes, he returns to facing reality.
