Italy has lined up for the big data center rush and, as is often the case in rapidly maturing markets, the numbers say more than the hype. Terna has surpassed 66 GW of requests for new data centers to connect to the transmission grid: a wave of projects that, added to distribution initiatives, signal a country ready to welcome larger, more energy-intensive and more visible digital infrastructure. But operational reality tells a different story: between 2028 and 2030, the capacity likely to see the light of day is between 2 and 3 GW. A physiological gap, due to capital, permitting, networks and the market, that scales back expectations without extinguishing the underlying signal.
The phenomenon has a precise geography. More than 80 percent of projects look to the North, with the Milan area alone touching 20 GW of demand. This is where the transformation will be most tangible, in areas that are already consumption-intensive and heavily populated, where demand for additional power translates into pressure on load coverage and, potentially, on prices. This is also where Terna draws attention: if data centers increase, generation capacity will have to grow in parallel, to avoid bottlenecks and unwanted volatility.
The three poles
Meanwhile, the snapshot of the present offers a starting point. I-Com censuses 209 active plants in Italy (October 2025), with three very clear poles: Milan (73), Rome (21), and Turin (11). In 2024, the centers’ consumption was around 3.9 TWh. Two-thirds of that power went to inference, that is, to the phase that feeds real-time responses and services; the rest to model training. Total installed capacity reached 287 MW, and most facilities still work on medium and low voltage, consistent with small sizes and circumscribed functions.
But the next step is already mapped out. A doubling of power is expected by 2026 thanks to the commissioning of some hyperscales, the large centers destined to change the scale and standards of the industry. For them, connecting to medium voltage will not be enough: direct connections to the high-voltage grid will be needed. This can be seen in the applications: applications for 220 kV (92) and 380 kV (49) grids are increasing, a sign that the average size of facilities is moving to next-generation industrial levels.
These are not just intentions. Terna’s Econnextion portal update as of October 31, 2025 shows 14 authorized and already contracted projects, all in Lombardy, totaling 1.53 GW. The names count: 500 MW in Bertonico, Lodigiano; 240 MW in Magenta; 180 MW in Bollate. The Region itself catalyzes more than half of the practices: 226 applications for 34.4 GW. This is followed by Piedmont (50 practices for 10.4 GW), Lazio (28 for 5.1 GW), Puglia (3.8 GW) and Emilia-Romagna (2.5 GW). Even at the provincial level the concentration is clear: Milan 15.2 GW, Turin 7.3, Pavia 5.6, Rome 4.6, Lodi 3.4. A path that, if confirmed, draws an increasingly marked production and digital axis.
The Energy Decree
To support expansion, the regulatory framework is called upon to run. The long-awaited Energy Decree is expected to introduce a unified authorization process for data centers. The single permit, issued by Regions or Autonomous Provinces up to 300 MW, with jurisdiction of the MASE above that threshold, will include all titles: from the AIA to the EIA, from landscape and cultural authorizations to permits for the use of water resources, and atmospheric emissions. Timing is part of the game: conclusion within 10 months, with an extension possible only in exceptional cases and for a maximum of three months; and above all, halving the EIA time compared to the ordinary. A package that aims to reduce uncertainty and waiting, without easing environmental safeguards.
Efficiency and sustainability are the other cornerstone. PUE, the indicator that measures how much total energy is needed for each unit devoted to IT, remains the benchmark: the ideal value is 1, but practice moves between traditional plants of 1.8-2.0 and a European market that, according to ICIS, is traveling around 1.5 today and could drop toward 1.35 in 2035. The IEA proposes similar numbers, with Europe at 1.45 in 2024 and below 1.3 as early as 2030. The United States, driven by the hyperscale deployment of large cloud providers, shows better values on average; the Middle East and Africa lag behind; Asia Pacific appears in line with European and U.S. levels. In summary: The global trajectory tends toward more efficiency, but the outcome will depend on the design quality and operational management of new sites.
The water variable
Then there is water, an often underestimated variable. WUE, the indicator that runs parallel to PUE, ranges globally between 0.36 and 0.48 liters per kWh. Numbers that, translated to the Italian context, impose caution: the country already faces water stress in several areas, especially in the South. If data centers were to be concentrated in areas of severe shortage, the impact could become critical. Today, the scenario is less alarming: about two-thirds of plants are in the North, an area classified as “non-critical” by ISPRA’s Permanent District Observatories on Water Uses. But industrial geography is changing, and with it will have to change cooling, recirculation and recovery technologies, lest we exchange digital progress for new environmental fragilities.
