28 September 2026
/ 25.09.2026

Electric cars: 2025 is the year of recovery. But the 2030 target is slipping further away

According to the Politecnico di Milano’s Smart Mobility Report 2026, the market share in Italy has risen to 12.6%, less than half the European average. At the current rate, there will be 3.1 million electric vehicles on the road by the end of the decade, compared to the 6.6 million projected by the PNIEC. And for the first time, Europe is importing more cars from China—in terms of value—than it is exporting.

After a year to forget in 2024, electric mobility is on the rise again. In 2025, approximately 193,000 electric cars were registered in Italy—98,000 battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and 95,000 plug-in hybrids (PHEVs)—and the market share rose to 12.6%, five percentage points higher than the previous year. This is the picture painted by the Smart Mobility Report 2026, the tenth edition of the study by Energy&Strategy at the School of Management of the Politecnico di Milano. A comparison with the rest of the continent, however, tempers the enthusiasm: in Europe, including the United Kingdom and EFTA countries, electric vehicles accounted for 26.8% of sales, with approximately 3.9 million vehicles.

In terms of numbers, therefore, the PNIEC’s target seems far off. At the current rate, Italy would reach 3.1 million electric cars by 2030, a figure that would rise to 3.6 and 4.2 million only with targeted policies. In the most ambitious scenario, by 2035, there would be 11.4 million electric vehicles, accounting for 28% of the vehicle fleet.

A Market Driven by Rules

The recovery, though insufficient, coincides with the entry into force of the new European emission limits for new cars. The same is true for freight transport: in Italy, electric vehicles have risen from 2% to 5% among light commercial vehicles and from 3.9% to 11% among vehicles weighing 3.5 to 16 metric tons. “The data clearly show that the electric mobility market is still quite policy-driven,” explains Vittorio Chiesa, director of Energy&Strategy. “Stability, clarity, and multi-year support mechanisms are needed to sustain operators’ investments.” Meanwhile, the charging network is expanding: by the end of 2025, there were approximately 1.3 million public charging points in Europe (+23%) and 77,000 in Italy (+17%), with a faster increase in the number of fast-charging stations.

China Dominates the Subcompact Car Market

The selection is expanding: as of June 2026, there were 183 battery-electric models for sale in Italy, a 49% increase. However, 68% of these belong to the mid-to-high-end segments, while there is a lack of small, affordable cars. This is where the Chinese industry is gaining ground: in 2025, car imports from China to the EU reached 13.8 billion euros, resulting in a trade deficit of 5.4 billion. This is the first time this has happened.

The European regulatory framework is currently undergoing a major overhaul. The Automotive Package introduces leeway regarding emissions standards which, according to the report, would bring the share of battery-electric vehicles among new registrations to 89% rather than 100%. With the additional flexibility proposed in the European Parliament’s first draft, this figure would drop to 58%, and annual emissions from plug-in hybrids would rise from 2.35 to 8.92 million metric tons of CO2.

Corporate fleets: an untapped lever

Fleets account for 46% of new vehicle registrations in Italy and travel three times as many kilometers as a private car. They could also fuel an affordable used electric vehicle market. Yet, according to a survey of 219 companies, 37% of large companies have not registered any zero-emission vehicles, and by 2025, 44% will not have purchased even a single BEV. Those who do use them, however, are satisfied: 79% would add them to their fleet again, and 60% derive economic benefits from them.

The report also examines battery recycling, which is key to reducing dependence on critical raw materials: there are approximately 200 facilities operating worldwide, and 24 startups have been founded in Europe since 2016.

Reviewed and language edited by Stefano Cisternino
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