The extent to which a city invests in drainage systems, early-warning systems, and resilient infrastructure determines whether the next extreme weather event will be a tragedy or a manageable inconvenience. This is the central argument of a new report by the geospatial intelligence firm AlphaGeo, as reported by The New York Times, which analyzes 72 major cities around the world based on two parameters: physical exposure to floods, heat, droughts, wildfires, and hurricanes; and the adaptive capacity demonstrated by local governments and infrastructure.
The result is an index, called Resilience-Adjusted Risk, which AlphaGeo founder Parag Khanna summarized to the New York newspaper as follows: “Resilience equals risk minus adaptation.” This formula debunks a widespread notion: geography is not an inescapable fate. Cities with nearly identical physical risk can differ dramatically in their residual risk, depending on how much they have invested in drainage systems, power grids, and urban planning.
Chicago first, South Asia last
At the top of the rankings is Chicago, benefiting from a temperate climate and decades of infrastructure investment, including the massive Deep Tunnel Project to combat flooding. It is followed by pleasant surprises such as Addis Ababa, Nairobi, Barcelona, Paris, and Buenos Aires. At the opposite end of the spectrum is a group consisting almost entirely of South Asian cities: Ahmedabad, Hyderabad (Pakistan), Multan, Dhaka, Kolkata, and Lahore. Dhaka has the highest physical exposure score in the entire sample, linked to increasingly extreme heat waves and monsoon rains.
The floods and landslides that have struck Nepal and Tibet in recent days, claiming hundreds of lives, are, for Khanna, an example of what happens when water finds the shortest path downhill—where human settlements have existed for centuries, yet are reduced to a negligible obstacle in the face of the force of nature.
The Chinese Model and the Asian Lesson
One finding the report highlights is the ability of China’s megacities to transform high physical exposure into a much lower residual risk: Beijing, Tianjin, Shenzhen, and Shanghai mitigate over 46% of their risk through systemic investments in water infrastructure and urban planning. This contrasts with the situation in Tokyo and Osaka, which remain at high risk despite adaptation efforts, overwhelmed by extreme heat. This proves that the effectiveness of adaptation—more than wealth itself—makes the difference between those who absorb the impact and those who continue to suffer it.
What about Europe, and Italy?
The European picture appears more robust, but not for a single reason: Paris, Barcelona, and London benefit from a temperate climate as well as structured adaptation plans, while Madrid is catching up thanks to its national plan despite being more physically exposed to extreme weather events. Italy does not appear among the cities analyzed by AlphaGeo, but national data reveal a growing vulnerability: according to the report “Too Much or Too Little,” presented by Italy for Climate at Venice Climate Week 2026, floods and hailstorms in our country have nearly tripled in six years, from 660 events in 2019 to 1,670 in 2025, with 2.9 million households now at risk. In Venice, sea levels have already risen by 41 centimeters compared to the late 19th century, with over 200 high-tide events in 2024 alone, while the Mediterranean has consistently exceeded an average temperature of 20 degrees, encouraging the arrival of invasive species and putting pressure on the entire coastal ecosystem.
The latest Istat report confirms that Italy’s regional capitals—built around old urban layouts designed for a different climate—are struggling to keep up with increasingly intense rainfall and record-breaking temperatures. This is the same paradox highlighted by AlphaGeo on a global scale: without targeted investments in urban drainage, heat-resistant power grids, and comprehensive emergency response plans, even a wealthy country remains vulnerable. In short, resilience must be built before the next wave—including the next heat wave—strikes.
