The new El Niño could cause global food prices to rise by 5% over the course of a year. This is the estimate from the European Commission’s Joint Research Center (JRC), the EU’s scientific service that produces analyses and data for European institutions. According to the JRC, a typical El Niño event can affect food markets because it alters temperatures and precipitation in various parts of the world, including some of the major agricultural regions. El Niño is already “firmly established,” according to the World Meteorological Organization, and there is a near-100% probability that it will continue through February 2027.
The link between climate events and prices primarily affects crop yields. When drought, heat, or abnormal rainfall reduce the production of crops such as corn, rice, and wheat, the resulting shortage can affect international markets and, after a certain delay, food prices. According to the JRC, the economic effects of El Niño could become more evident in the final months of 2026 and continue into 2027.
Where El Niño Might Strike
The phenomenon does not have the same effects everywhere. The areas considered most at risk by the JRC are sub-Saharan Africa, South and Southeast Asia, Australia, and the Americas. Drier conditions could affect Australia and Southeast Asia, Southern Africa, Central America, northern South America, the Sahel, and India.
In other regions, however, above-normal precipitation is expected. This is the case for the coastal regions of East Africa and Central Asia, while heavier rainfall could also affect southeastern South America and the western United States.
The agricultural consequences are already reflected in the estimates cited by the JRC. Global wheat production could decrease by 35.9 million metric tons, or 4.26 percent; rice production by 9.9 million (-1.75 percent); and corn production by 3.34 million (-0.26 percent). Soybean production, on the other hand, is expected to increase by 11.6 million metric tons (+2.7%). According to the JRC, the economic impact is potentially broader than that of a single harvest: changes in production can affect inflation, trade, and supply chains.
Italy is coming off a difficult season
The JRC currently considers the direct impact of El Niño on agricultural production in the European Union to be limited. The problem is that European agriculture is facing this new phenomenon after an already difficult summer.
In its August 24 crop monitoring bulletin, the JRC had sharply revised downward its forecasts for summer crops due to persistent heat and exceptional water shortages. Soybean yields were estimated to be 14% below the five-year average, while grain corn yields were estimated to be 7% below average. In Italy, the situation was more critical: the yield for grain corn was estimated to be 15% below the five-year average, while the soybean yield was 17% below the average and 26% lower than in 2025.
The new El Niño thus comes at a time when the agricultural sector is already grappling with more uncertain harvests and high costs. The JRC also points to a factor that remains difficult to quantify: the interaction between the phenomenon, climate change, and the exceptionally high sea surface temperatures recorded since 2023. The key variable to monitor in the coming months will be the progression from the meteorological effects on the fields to their impact on harvests, from harvests to markets, and, finally, to the prices paid by consumers.
