The gap between the climate commitments declared by major oil companies and their industrial strategies continues to widen. This is according to the “Transition Planning 2026” report by the TPI Global Climate Transition Center at the London School of Economics, which analyzes the decarbonization plans of sixteen of the world’s largest companies in the sector. Among the eleven companies that publicly disclose their production forecasts, oil and gas output is set to increase by an average of 14% by 2030, rising from 22.9 to 26.16 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. This trajectory takes us further away from scenarios compatible with the goals of the Paris Agreement.
Climate Goals and Investments
The report highlights an increasingly stark contradiction. Many companies continue to announce climate neutrality goals and emissions reduction programs, but they are far less likely to present detailed plans—with verifiable investments, resources, and timelines—that demonstrate how these goals will be achieved. According to the researchers, the oil industry still lacks concrete evidence of a genuine transition from the fossil fuel business toward low-emission energy solutions.
Another factor is the lack of transparency regarding investments. Only four companies— BP, Eni, Equinor, and OMV — publish information on both current and future spending on low-carbon activities. According to the TPI, capital allocation remains one of the main weaknesses of transition strategies, making it difficult to assess the extent to which climate goals are actually supported by consistent investments.
Progress also appears limited when it comes to diversification. In fact, none of the companies that have set quantitative targets to increase low-emission energy production expects sufficient growth to align with the reference climate scenarios. According to TPI’s calculations, by 2030, the maximum share of low-carbon energy would reach just 5% of total energy production.
A long way to go
The analysis also shows that the projected growth even exceeds the International Energy Agency’s “Current Policies” scenario, which estimates a 5.9% increase in global demand for oil and gas between 2024 and 2030. According to the report’s authors, this suggests that many companies are aiming to increase their share of the global hydrocarbon market, rather than preparing for a gradual reduction in production.
The Guardian’s editorial also fits into this context. “To align with the Paris Agreement’s goal (…) there can be no new long-term oil and gas exploration or development projects,” the newspaper notes, citing the position of the International Energy Agency. Yet high crude oil prices—fueled in part by geopolitical tensions—are boosting the sector’s profits and driving new investments in extraction.
The TPI report thus suggests that industrial choices are the true litmus test of the energy transition. As long as production and investment continue to prioritize oil and gas, the gap between climate goals and the strategies of major companies will remain one of the main obstacles to decarbonization.
